American Samoa will likely see normal to below normal TC activity for the 2021-22 Tropical Cyclone season.
According to the National Weather Service, American Samoa, fairly consistent with La Nina conditions, the outlook for American Samoa is 1 to 2 tropical cyclones.
“Although La Nina conditions tend to reduce tropical cyclone activity near American Samoa, we still urge residents and mariners to be fully prepared for this tropical cyclone season. One cyclone can devastate a community, and it does not take a direct hit from a tropical storm or a hurricane to cause significant damage or life-threatening weather.”
This outlook is a general guide to the overall TC season activity near the American Samoa basin (extends to 300 nautical miles from Tutuila) and does not predict whether, or how many, of these systems will either make landfall or directly impact American Samoa. TC season formally begins on November 1 and runs through April 30.
The International Research Institute and the National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center predict a La Nina event through the tropical cyclone season.
During La Nina years, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) typically shifts to the west-southwest of its climatological position (See Figure 2 below), which would move it further away from American Samoa during this upcoming season (See Figure 1 below).
Tropical Cyclones have a lower chance of developing within 300 nautical miles of the Samoan Islands from November through the end of the season.
